ZHUCHENG, China, October 13, 2026 — CAAM data released on October 12, 2026 reframes the commercial vehicle axle business: gas commercial vehicle sales fell 66.8% year on year to 9,000 units in September. Electrification is not one curve — diesel, gas and electricity now pull three ways.

Gas trucks fell 67% in September. CAAM counted 9,000 gas commercial vehicles in September, up 16% on August but down 66.8% year on year; nine-month volume is 164,000, down 9.2%. First Commercial Vehicle Network reported on October 9 that LNG above 6 yuan per kg has cut gas truck sales four months running since June — 12,000 in June, then about 6,000 a month — leaving gas under 13% of the domestic heavy truck market.

NEV share slipped to 46.6%. New-energy commercial vehicles sold 110,000 domestic units in September, up 32.6% year on year but only 6.9% on August, so penetration fell 2.7 points from August's 49.3%. Conventional-fuel models rose about 19% on the month to roughly 125,000: peak-season restocking went to diesel first. The nine-month NEV total is 800,000, up 41.3%.

Exports carried the month. Commercial vehicle exports reached 133,000 units in September, up 44.3% and equal to 36% of all commercial vehicles sold; truck exports rose 51.5% to 118,000 while domestic truck sales fell 16.6% to 195,000. Nine-month exports of 1.039 million, up 38.8%, equal 98% of the 1.06 million shipped in all of 2025.

What three curves mean for axle makers. A gas tractor and a battery tractor share neither drive axle ratio, front axle load rating nor lubrication spec. Falling gas volume strands ratio-specific drive axles; light trucks, the only class to grow in September at 179,000 units, up 11%, pull front axle and e-axle volume; export duty cycles in Africa, Latin America and Central Asia reward sealed wheel ends and long oil drains over peak power. Zhucheng Yihe Axle Co., Ltd. builds all three, so a fuel-mix swing is a schedule change, not a lost programme.

The takeaway: in 2027 the winning commercial vehicle axle supplier will not be the one betting on a single fuel, but the one able to re-mix front axle, drive axle and e-axle capacity within a quarter.